The Probabilistic Risk Assessment Imperative in Philippine Climate Change Adaptation-Disaster Risk Reduction (CCA-DRR) Efforts

A.M.F. Lagmay, J.T. Santiago, J.E. Mendoza, J.K.B. Suarez, J.V. Agapito, R.M. Rosales,
A.C. Pascual, and C.R. Concepcion


The Philippines is ranked first in the World Risk Index 2022 according to the Germany-based Bündnis Entwicklung Hilft and the Institute for International Law of Peace and Armed Conflict (IFHV). The country will likely remain at the top rank of the global risk index over the next few decades, mainly due to the Philippines being in the Pacific Typhoon Belt, where the adverse impacts of climate change are predicted to get worse. To solve this predicament, intensive preparations through development planning are needed, and Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is required to capture and anticipate future hazards bigger than the historical record. The probabilistic approach is recognized in the Philippine Development Plan 2017-2022 and 2023-2028, the 2019 National Climate Risk Management Framework Policy of the Climate Change Commission (CCC), and the United Nations Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) document entitled, “Why Invest in Probabilistic Risk Assessment?” as necessary for effective climate change adaptation actions. However, the Philippines has yet to realize the nationwide-scale implementation of PRAs in our CCA-DRR efforts, despite it being a strategy recommended by the national government to effectively address worsening natural hazard impacts that
severely hamper national development. This paper highlights the importance of PRA in the context of Philippine Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Reduction (CCA-DRR) efforts to lower the cost of damage from floods, rainfall-triggered landslides, and storm surges and help communities attain their sustainable development goals. We recommend that these policies be systematically implemented without any more delay.